Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”