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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.